Will AI Replace Software Engineers? What the Federal Projections Say in 2027

Will AI replace software engineers? The federal projections say no, not in the next decade. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects software developers, the occupation that includes software engineers, to grow 10.2% from 2025 to 2035, nearly three times the 3.5% for all jobs. It also names AI as a reason demand for software work is growing.

AI does show up as a reason some nearby jobs shrink. Computer programmers are projected to decline 7.3%, and BLS says that is partly because programming work is being automated, including with AI. Across the data, the jobs where BLS names AI as a reason for a shrinking share are the narrower ones: programming, testing and web development.

Openings include jobs that open when workers retire or change occupations, not only new jobs. “AI in BLS’s stated reason” means the factor BLS publishes for the occupation (table 1.12) names artificial intelligence.

What does the government expect for software engineers? Growth. Software developers, which BLS uses for software engineers too, are projected to grow 10.2%, adding about 174,700 jobs, with around 95,300 openings a year once retirements and job changes are counted.

And AI? The Occupational Outlook Handbook names it as a source of demand: “Demand for software developers, software quality assurance analysts, and testers is projected to be strong due to the continued expansion of software development for artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and other automation applications.”

BLS also publishes stated factors where it expects an occupation’s share of the work to shift, such as automation or tasks moving to another job. For software developers it lists none. The median pay was $135,980 in May 2025. The software engineer salary report breaks that down by state and metro.

Which coding job is losing ground? Computer programmers, projected to decline 7.3% over the decade. BLS states its reason in full: “Productivity change, occupational substitution - share decreases as computer programming tasks are more commonly performed by other computer occupations, such as software developers. Computer programming work also continues to be automated, including with artificial intelligence (AI), allowing computer programmers to become more efficient.”

Two things are happening in that sentence. Programming tasks are more often done by software developers as part of their wider job. And the programming work that remains is being automated, so fewer programmers get more done. Even so, BLS still projects about 4,400 programmer openings a year, all of them from people retiring or moving to other jobs, since the total is shrinking.

One detail matters for new graduates: BLS files the title “Junior Software Developer” under programmers, not developers. The computer programmer career guide covers what that job looks like now.

Are other software jobs affected? Two are, in a milder way. Both are still projected to grow, but BLS names AI in the reasons their share of the work shrinks.

For quality assurance analysts and testers (+5.7%), BLS says the share decreases as some tasks move to software developers as companies increasingly integrate their testing into their software development processes, and as some testing tasks are automated by artificial intelligence (AI).

For web developers (+3.8%), the share decreases as low- and no-code tools, along with artificial intelligence (AI), increasingly automate web development and increasingly allow other workers to complete web development tasks.

Notice where the testing work goes: to software developers. The same shift that squeezes the narrower jobs pushes more responsibility toward the people who own the whole system.

Does AI create any software jobs? According to BLS, yes. Computer and information research scientists are projected to grow 21.8%, and BLS gives AI as part of the reason: the share increases as demand for solutions to complex computing challenges and for developing new technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), will support an increased demand for computer and information research scientists.

Data scientists are the fastest-growing computing occupation in this set, at 34.6%, with about 24,800 openings a year. BLS ties that to data rather than AI directly: the share increases as larger amounts of digital and electronic data are collected over the projections decade.

The typical entry education BLS lists is a master’s degree for research scientists and a bachelor’s degree for data scientists. Software engineering vs computer science shows which degree leans more on math and theory.

If the work is shifting, what should you get good at? Look at what BLS does not describe as moving to automation: owning the whole system. That means understanding what users need, designing software that can change, deciding how it should be tested and working through it with a team.

Those are exactly the areas a software engineering curriculum is built around. The national guideline, SE2014, puts 50% of its minimum hours into practice areas, led by software design, software verification and validation, software process and requirements analysis and specification. The qualities BLS lists for the job point the same way: analytical skills, communication skills, creativity, attention to detail, interpersonal skills and problem-solving skills.

Writing code still matters; you cannot design or review what you cannot build. But the safest skills are the ones that sit around the code. The software engineer career guide shows how the work and the route in look today.

1. You’ll often read that AI will make software engineers obsolete within a few years.

   The federal projection for the occupation is growth of 10.2% to 2035, with AI named as a source of demand.

2. You’ll often read that no one should learn to code anymore.

   BLS projects about 95,300 software developer openings a year. The shrinking job is the narrower one, programmers, and even it has about 4,400 openings a year.

3. You’ll often read that AI only threatens low-skill jobs.

   In computing, the jobs where BLS names AI as a reason for a shrinking share are programmers, testers and web developers: skilled jobs, defined by narrower tasks.

4. You’ll often read that the projections already account for everything AI will do.

   They are BLS’s best estimates and are revised every year. Treat them as the most careful public baseline, not a guarantee.

• You’re choosing a major. A degree that teaches design, requirements, testing and teamwork prepares you for the work BLS sees growing. Compare the software engineering bachelor’s programs; there are 85 in our data.
• You’re worried about entry-level jobs. Aim past “just coding”: internships, a team capstone and projects where you own the design make you look like a developer, not a programmer.
• You already work in software. Move toward system design, testing strategy and working with users. Those are the tasks that the projections move toward developers, not away from them.
• You like math and AI itself. Research and data science are where BLS projects the fastest growth; research scientists typically start with a master’s degree.

• Is Software Engineering Hard?› The math, the workload and how many students finish.
• Software Engineering vs. Computer Science› What each degree teaches, and which fits you.
• Data Scientist Career Guide› The fastest-growing computing job in the federal projections.
• Computer Research Scientist Career Guide› Where BLS says AI adds demand.